罗兰贝格2025年全球汽车供应商研究概述.pptx

Global Automot,ive,Supplier,Study,2025,Stagformation:Trends,outl,ook,and recommenda,tions,to navigate,stagnation and,transformation,REPORT,he,global,a,utomotive,supplier,industry,is,facing,a,challenging market,rising,competitio,n,and mounting,cost pressures,from prolonged,technological,transformations.,In,essence,what,we,currently,observe,in,the,automotive,supplier,industry,can be,aptly,described,as,a period,of,stagformation,whe,re,stagnating,volume,growth,is,coupled,with,the urgen,t need,to,transform,established business model,s.,The,financial,performance,of,automotive,suppliers reflects,this,challenging,sentiment,with EBIT margins remaining,2 percentage points below pre-Covid,levels.,While,there,was,a,temporary,stabilizat,ion,in,2023,forecasts,indicate,a,further,decline,in 2024,with,industry,averages,expected,to,drop,to,4.7,%.,We,expect profitability,challenges,to persist,and,likely,intensify,in,the,coming,years,driven by,five key,trends:,1),stagnating,global,sales,volume,2),slower,adoption,of,battery,electric,vehicles(BEVs),3)rising,software,c,osts,and,increasing,customer,demand,for,advanced,dri,ver,assistance,systems(ADAS),and,connectivity,features,4),swelling,economic,and,competitive pressures,in China,and 5),resurging,geopolitical,tensions,and,global,trade,barriers.,To remain,competitive,in,todays,dy,namic,automotive landscape,and prepare,for,the,future,we recommend,suppliers,optimize,their portfolios,through,partnerships,streamli,ne,their product,offerings,and,focus,on,strategic,technologies.,Western,suppliers must prioritize,structural,cost,improveme,nts,to,stay,competitive,amid rising pressure,fro,m Chinese players.,Technology,and,cost leaders,shoul,d,focus,on,strategic,well-executed,expansion,to,sustain,their,advantage.Given,the,a,ccelerating,geopolitical,dynamics,and market,volatility,executing,clear,and,disciplined regional,strategie,s,is,crucial.,These,strategies,will be,essential,for,ensuring resilience,enhancing profitability,and,improving,capital,structures.,Management,summary,landscape,clouded by,stagnati,ng,growth,geopolitical uncertainty,2,Global,Automotive,Supplier,Study,2025,T,Getting,started,Automotive,state o,f health,Review of financial health of th,e automotive,supplier i,ndustry,Key supplier tren,ds and implications,4.1/,Global production,volume,stagnation,4.2/,BEV,slowd,own and increasing pressure,4.3/,Software-defined,vehicles,4.4/,Chinese market&competiti,veness,4.5/,Geopo,litical developments,Recommendations,Fast,Facts,4.,7,%,Estimated,industry-lev,el,EBIT margin,in,2024,67%,Expected,market sha,re,of local,OEMs in,China,in,2030,111 m,Production,overcapacitie,s,in,the,automotive,industry,2020-2030,4,5,9,13,24,1,2,3,4,5,Contents,3,Global,Automotive,Supplier,Study,2025,Page,Getting,sta,rted,The past couple of years have bee,n tough for the automotive supplier industry.The post-,Covid bounce,fizzled out,with lackluster growth,and increasing cost,regulatory,and,supply,challenges.,Although,we,saw,a,certain,stabilization,and,recovery,until,the,first,half,of,2024,the,automotive,environment became,increasingly,chall,enging,throughout,the,year.,The,electric,vehicle market is experiencing a slowdown and overcapacity,stru,ctural shifts,and rising,costs are intensifying competition.We,see,five overarching,trends,in,the overall,automotive,market,that have,specific,conse,quences,for,the,supplier,industry:,1.Global production is stagnating,with,Eu,rope,recovering,most slowly,while,China,and,South,Asia,are,the main,drivers,of modest,global,volume,growth,.,2.BEV sales are stagnating in Europe and North America as sub,sidies are withdrawn,but,hybrid,vehicles,are,experien,cing,a resurgence.,3.,Software-d,efined,vehicles(SDVs)are expected,to become increasingly dominant in,the,coming,years,impacting both OEMs,and,OESs.,4.,The market environment in China is getting even,tougher,with,fierce competition amo,ng,OEMs,resulting in a,f,urther,margin,squeeze.,5.,Accelerating geopolitical dynamics are reshaping,global trade among core automotive,regions,through,tariffs,and,s,ubsidies,aimed,at,fostering local,economic,competitiveness.,To navigate the comple,xities,of stagfor,mation,automotive,suppliers must,prioritize strategic,partnerships and optimize their,portfolios to rem,ain competitive in,a rapidly evolving market,landscape.,Felix Mogge,Senior Partner,Rola,nd Berger,1,4,Global,Automotive,Supplier,Study,2025,Automotive,sta,te of health,Recovery has halted,with challenges particularly in Europe an,d,for BEVs,The,unprecedented disruptions of the,past few years,from,Covid-19 to semi,conductor,shortages and heightened geopolitical tensions,hav,e sent the automotive industry into a,steep decline,.Our analysis,shows,that after a certain recovery in 2023,2024,was,marked,by,accelerating,challenges,once,again.,In,this,sectio,n,we,examine,some,of,the,key,performance,indicators of the supplier industry,which are fundamental to their fin,ancial performance,as,examine,d,in,the,subsequent,chapter,3.,Global,vehicle 。